2023 年 7 月份聯準會會議紀錄讀後感

The information available at the time of the July 25–26 meeting suggested that real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a moderate pace over the first half of the year. 

經濟狀況良好。

The labor market remained very tight, though the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market was gradually diminishing. 

勞動就業市場仍然吃緊。

Consumer price inflation—as measured by the 12-month percent change in the price index for PCE—remained elevated in May, and available information suggested that inflation declined but remained elevated in June.

通膨問題未解。

Available indicators suggested that real GDP rose in the second quarter at a pace similar to the one posted in the first quarter. However, private domestic final purchases—which includes PCE, residential investment, and business fixed investment and which often provides a better signal of underlying economic momentum than does GDP—appeared to have decelerated in the second quarter. Manufacturing output rose in the second quarter, supported by a robust increase in motor vehicle production.

第二季經濟活動減緩，但是汽車工業有撐。

In assessing the economic outlook, participants noted that real GDP growth had continued to exhibit resilience in the first half of the year and that the economy had been showing considerable momentum. A gradual slowdown in economic activity nevertheless appeared to be in progress, consistent with the restraint placed on demand by the cumulative tightening of monetary policy since early last year and the associated effects on financial conditions.

GDP 狀況 OK，但是因為升息還是有減緩。

Participants remarked on the uncertainty about the lags in the effects of monetary policy on the economy and discussed the extent to which the effects on the economy stemming from the tightening that the Committee had undertaken had already materialized.

升息後的影響有延遲跡象。 

However, they stressed that inflation remained unacceptably high and that further evidence would be required for them to be confident that inflation was clearly on a path toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective. Participants continued to view a period of below-trend growth in real GDP and some softening in labor market conditions as needed to bring aggregate supply and aggregate demand into better balance and reduce inflation pressures sufficiently to return inflation to 2 percent over time.

通膨還是太高，經濟可以減速來降低通膨。

結論

不像是要降息，但是升息會減緩，長年期公債風險仍有。