【英文學習】看懂Fed記者會系列之2021年7月27-28日會議紀錄

美國聯準會在7月27日至28日開會，單字、心得、翻譯如下：

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單字

• less accommodative path of monetary policy：未來較不寬鬆的貨幣政策
• net asset purchases：淨資產購買，購債
• tapering：減少
• mortgage-backed securities (MBS)：不動產抵押貸款證券
• money markets：貨幣市場

心得

近期通膨成長漲要因素為去年的基期低、某些產業生產瓶頸及供應鏈吃緊，聯準會無法確定長線通膨能維持在目標的2%，因此短時間不會升息。

另外，聯準會將極端數據剃除後的得到的PCE僅成長1.9%。

雖然後，會議中有討論是否縮減購債規模，但是如果縮減太快，又如何能維持聯邦基金利率在貼近0%呢？因此應該不會縮減太快或太多。

翻譯

The information available at the time of the July 27–28 meeting suggested that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) had increased in the second quarter at a faster pace than in the first quarter of the year. Indicators of labor market conditions were mixed in June, though labor demand remained strong. Consumer price inflation through May—as measured by the 12-month percentage change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—had picked up notably, largely reflecting transitory factors.

截至7月28日止，資料顯示美國第2季 GPD 成長快於第1季，雖然勞動力吃緊，6月份勞動力指標卻不一，5月份消費者物價指數與前期比較明顯成長，主要是因為暫時性因素。

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose sharply in June, with job gains widespread across industries and especially strong job growth in the leisure and hospitality sector.

非農就業人口在6月份大幅成長，各行各業皆有勞動需求，旅遊、觀光產業甚由。

As of June, total payroll employment had retraced more than two-thirds of the losses seen at the onset of the pandemic. The unemployment rate edged higher and stood at 5.9 percent in June, and the unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics remained well above the national average. 

6月份的部分，新冠疫情爆發時造成的失業人數已經恢復超過了三分之二，失業率上升至5.9%，非裔及拉丁裔人口失業率仍然高於總平均。

The labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio were unchanged in June. May private-sector job openings, as measured by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, remained at the highest recorded level since the survey’s inception in 2000. 

6月份勞動參與率及就業人口比例無變動；5月份私營企業徵才仍然維持自2000年有紀錄以來的高檔。

Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance were little changed, on net, since mid-June. Weekly estimates of private-sector payrolls constructed by Federal Reserve Board staff using data provided by the payroll processor ADP that were available through the first part of July suggested that the pace of private employment gains had remained strong.

至6月中旬止，各州失業保險金初步申請人數無變動。聯準會使用的資料自動化處理程序獲得民營企業薪資資料顯示民營就業市場成長仍然強勁。

Recent 12-month change measures of inflation, using either PCE prices or the consumer price index (CPI), had been boosted by base effects as the extremely low inflation readings from the spring of 2020 rolled out of the calculation. In addition, a surge in demand as the economy reopened further, combined with production bottlenecks and supply constraints, had pushed up recent monthly price increases.

近12月無論是用個人消費支出還是消費者物價指數計算，通貨膨脹皆因著去年初低基期而升高，另外，疫情解封造成的報復性消費、生產瓶頸及供應鏈吃緊等因素皆推升每月物價指數。

Total PCE price inflation was 3.9 percent over the 12 months ending in May, and core PCE price inflation, which excludes changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer food prices, was 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending in May. In contrast, the trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was 1.9 percent in May. 

從去年5月算起12個月來，總個人消費支出價格膨脹了3.9%，剔除消費能源及各類食品價格的核心個人消費支出成長了3.4%。但是，達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行的修正數據顯示個人消費支出價格僅成長了1.9%。

In June, the 12-month change in the CPI was 5.4 percent, while the core CPI rose 4.5 percent over the same period. In the second quarter of 2021, the staff’s common inflation expectations index, which combines information from many indicators of inflation expectations and inflation compensation, had more than reversed the moderate decline recorded in the middle of last year and had returned to the level that prevailed in 2014, when actual inflation was relatively modest

 6月份消費者物價指數成長5.4%，核心消費者物價指數成長4.5%。同時考量各通膨預測指標及修正數據，通膨預測指數從去年中的緩和緊縮到中性水準，如同2014年一般。

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